Here you can find all the WTA Wimbledon Picks! In women’s tennis, Wimbledon has returned the sport to where it was before the rise of Iga Świątek, with different Cinderellas powering through to Grand Slam titles several times a year.
Swiatek is dominant on clay and hard court surfaces, but she just can’t play at that level on grass yet, and this year’s beneficiaries are Jasmine Paolini and Barbora Krejčíková, who will play for the women’s singles title on Saturday.
In 2022, Elena Rybakina entered as the 17th seed but won the title. Last year, Markéta Vondroušová won as an unseeded player.
Paolini and Krejcikova have only met once, back in 2018 in qualifying at the Australian Open. Krejcikova rolled over Paolini, 6-2, 6-1, but neither player indicated they remembered it in an interview on Thursday.
Paolini has made it to one Grand Slam final, losing to Swiatek. Krejcikova won the French Open three years ago, taking down the less-than-imposing Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
Both finalists lost the first set of their semifinal matches before gathering themselves and winning the second and third sets.
Paolini is slightly quicker and has a steadier hand, while Krejcikova has a higher ceiling in terms of power, but she also makes more mistakes.
Let’s take a closer look at this final as you plan your weekend’s sports betting.
WTA Final Showdown: Wimbledon Picks, Analysis & Prediction
Jasmine Paolini Wimbledon Picks +109
Paolini is the seventh seed at Wimbledon and rolled to the final at Roland Garros a little over a month ago, so she understands the pressure of playing for a major championship.
That exposure is crucial in terms of allowing her to get into her game from the beginning, instead of needing time to adjust to the moment (and finding herself quickly down a set as a result). Her positive energy should continue to drive her.
Paolini is also aware of her shortcomings, which include serving more effectively and taking control of the point more proactively.
It will be important to use her speed to keep Krejcikova off balance so that her ball-striking is less than clean.
That means moving Krejcikova around, altering the look of her approach, and relying on her own fitness, which gave her the edge against Donna Vekic in the semifinals.
Paolini didn’t convert her first match point opportunity against Vekic, but she kept her head and prevailed in the end.
^Barbora Krejcikova Wimbledon Picks -145
Krejcikova has to start with more consistency than she showed against Elena Rybakina in her semifinal, as she yielded the first four games of the match.
Even so, she didn’t lose her cool, but instead stayed composed. The first set seemed academic at that point, but Krejcikova got off the mat and made Rybakina put in a real effort to close things out.
That process seemed to push Krejcikova back into the match; after she won her first game, she looked like she had more energy and aggressiveness with each subsequent game that she won.
Krejcikova has beaten some impressive names en route to this final. She stopped 11-seed Danielle Collins and 13-seed Jeļena Ostapenko in the round of 16 and the quarterfinals, for example.
Her variety can frustrate opponents, and if she can put that to work for her early, that could blunt the momentum that Paolini wants to bring into the match.
She needs to remember to swing big. She started small against Rybakina and paid the price.
Once her swings started getting bigger, she won 15 of the next 23 games to close out the match.
This is her main edge over the faster (but shorter) Paolini.
While her first match with Paolini happened more than six years ago, her ace percentage was 13% (it’s generally around 5%), and when Paolini had to go to her second serve, Krejcikova won 74% of the points.
In other words, Krejcikova drove the tempo and won easily.
^Wimbledon WTA Final Prediction Jasmine Paolini vs Barbora Krejcikova
Paolini is on a terrific streak right now. She’s playing inspired tennis, and she will have the crowd behind her.
Krejcikova is healthy and strong right now, and I see this going three sets, but I see Paolini’s refusal to be denied taking her through.
Wimbledon Final Pick: Paolini in three sets.
^A message from first-time #Wimbledon finalist, @JasminePaolini! 🗣️🇮🇹 pic.twitter.com/7iquqf3Dqx
— wta (@WTA) July 11, 2024
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Wimbledon Picks for the WTA Final Game Jasmine Paolini vs Barbora Krejcikova
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