UFC 218 unfolds on Saturday night in Detroit, with the main card bout of Max Holloway vs Jose Aldo capping off a night of promising fights. The undercard bouts include Angela Magana vs Amanda Cooper (115 lbs.), Allen Crowder vs Justin Willis (265 lbs), Dominick Reyes vs Jeremy Kimball (205 lbs) and Abdul Razak Alhassan vs Sabah Homasi (170 lbs), but it is the final bout that we will preview here. Holloway is the defending featherweight champion, but now Aldo comes back to try and take the title back in a rematch of the fight that saw Holloway become the undefeated champion.
Back at UFC 212, Aldo had been the champ and Holloway had been the interim champ, and Holloway’s third-round knockout of Aldo gave him the unified title. Holloway had been slated to face Frankie Edgar, a former UFC lightweight champion, but Edgar had to withdraw due to injury, and Aldo has taken his place. Take a look at our fight preview as you consider your MMA odds strategy for this fight.
UFC 218 Holloway vs. Aldo Betting Preview & Prediction
When: Saturday, December 2, 2017, 10:00pm ET (Main Event)Where: Little Caesars Arena, DetroitTV: UFC Fight Pass PPV (Main Card) / FS1 (Undercard)Live Stream: UFC Fight PassUFC Odds: Max Holloway -300
Why should you bet on Holloway?
No other featherweight in UFC can match Holloway’s 10-bout winning streak. He has not lost since UFC Fight Night 26, when he fell to Conor McGregor back in August 2013. He has earned elite status as far as his defense goes. Also, he ranks #4 in UFC featherweight history with a takedown defense rate of 82.4 percent. His striking defense ranks fifth overall in the history of his division, as he has achieved a rate of 66.4 percent.
This is not to say that Holloway is soft on the attack, though. He has landed 1,163 significant strikes in his UFC career. That ranks him sixth overall in the history of UFC — not just the featherweight class but in the entire group of fighters. His strikes come quickly, as well — he lands 5.79 strikes per minute, which ranks him #10 overall in the history of UFC. So Holloway can bring the punishment in addition to holding off the opposition. He doesn’t shrink from the limelight, either — he has fought in the headline bout of three different UFC events, and he has won all three of those fights by stoppage (including his last two appearances).
Why should you put your money on Aldo?
Aldo is the only UFC featherweight who has held the class title two different times, so he does have experience gaining the title, losing it and then redeeming himself. He has also been quite tenacious once he has the title, as he is tops in the class with seven straight successful title defenses in bouts. He tends to last a long time — no UFC featherweight has a longer average fight time than what he has posted, and his time (18:39) is the second best of any UFC fighter ever.
While Holloway’s takedown defense is solid, Aldo ranks tops in the class, with a 90.6 percent success rate. His significant strike defense is 67 percent, good for fourth overall in his class. He has lasted 3:06:25 in the ring (combined fights), which ranks fourth in the class. Also, he has landed 564 significant strikes, sixth overall in his class. He has landed 676 total strikes, which ranks seventh in his division.
Expert Pick and Final Prediction
When Aldo goes down, he goes down hard — all three of his losses in UFC have come by the knockout. Both of these fighters have impressive numbers, but the streak that Holloway has posted lately is most impressive. I predict that Holloway will win by stoppage and retain his UFC flyweight title.
