This weekend’s installment of UFC was supposed to take place in Brazil, but the promotion moved UFC 274 north to the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. This weekend’s headliner is a UFC Lightweight title fight featuring Charles Oliveira, who will square off against former interim champ Justin Gaethje, who also held the WSOF Lightweight belt at one point. Oliveira has already lost the title after missing weight by a half-pound. The fight will go on as a catchweight bout, but only Gaethje can emerge with the title with a win. The co-headliner is a UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship fight between the current champ, Rose Namajunas, and the former champ, Carla Esparza, who also was the Strawweight Champion in Invicta FC. This is their second meeting; Esparza won the first time back in 2014 via submission. Read on for the full fight card and some of our UFC betting predictions for the night.
UFC 274: Oliveira vs Gaethje Preview
Main Card (Pay Per View)
- Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje (UFC Lightweight Championship)
- Rose Namajunas vs Carla Esparza (UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship)
- Michael Chandler vs Tony Ferguson (Lightweight)
- Mauricio Rua vs Ovince Saint Preux (Light Heavyweight)
- Donald Cerrone vs Joe Lauzon (Lightweight)
Preliminary Card (ESPN / ESPN+)
- Andre Fialho vs Cameron VanCamp (Welterweight)
- Randy Brown vs Khaos Williams (Welterweight)
- Macy Chiasson vs Norma Dumont (Women’s Catchweight – 146.5 lbs)
- Brandon Royval vs Matt Schnell (Flyweight)
Early Preliminary Card (ESPN+ / UFC Fight Pass)
- Blagoy Ivanov vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima (Heavyweight)
- Francisco Trinaldo vs Danny Roberts (Welterweight)
- Tracy Cortez vs Melissa Gatto (Women’s Flyweight)
- Kleydson Rodrigues vs C.J. Vergara (Flyweight)
- Ariane Carnelossi vs Lupita Godinez (Women’s Strawweight)
- Journey Newson vs Fernie Garcia (Bantamweight)
Charles Oliveira (32-8, 20-8 UFC, -165) vs Justin Gaethje (23-3, 6-3 UFC, +145) will have an intriguing vibe now that Oliveira has no chance to retain the belt. If Gaethje wins the fight, he wins the belt, but if Oliveira wins, the title would be vacant. Oliveira is a fighter who came into UFC on the strength of his grappling, but it was not until he had been in the promotion for seven years that he started his current winning streak of 10 fights in a row. A 2019 submission win over David Teymur showed a turning point in his skill, and when he beat Michael Chandler for the vacant lightweight belt, he was able to deal with over a full round of crazy pressure before opening the second round with a knockout. He defended his belt in December against Dustin Poirier with a standing rear-naked choke in the third round. This whirlwind of violence will still be fun to watch – and Oliveira will certainly have plenty of resentment on his mind as he tries to keep the belt off Gaethje.
Gaethje also has a wrestling background thanks to his collegiate career, but his initial approach in MMA was to run down his opponent and then play as much defense as possible while also trying to deliver a brutal knockout. His UFC debut was an insane win over Michael Johnson in which he almost got knocked out several times. After some tough losses to Poirier and Eddie Alvarez, he won an interim title in 2019 before losing to Khabib Nurmagomedov. Gaethje and Chandler took part in a war of their own in November, which set up Gaethje as the contender. Gaethje will try to use leg kicks to slow down Oliveira, but with this giant wooden chip on his shoulder, I like Oliveira to use the added motivation of spite to win.
Final Prediction:
Oliveira wins via submission
Rose Namajunas (11-4, 9-3 UFC, -195) vs Carla Esparza (18-6, 9-4 UFC, +165) will provide an intriguing rematch between the two combatants in the very first UFC Women’s Strawweight championship bout. At that point, Namajunas was a raw fighter, and Esparza was able to run right through her. That was just the fourth fight Namajuans had ever fought at the pro level. When Namajunas has lost, it has happened against opponents who could bring an element of bullying. Jessica Andrade took the belt from her by picking Namajunas up and dropping her on her head, but Namajunas came back to beat Andrade in a rematch, took the belt back from Weili Zhang, and then beat Zhang again in November.
Esparza lost that belt quickly, as Joanna Jedrzejczyk delivered an ugly battering to take it away. She then lost to Claudia Gadelha and Tatiana Suarez in 2018, and it seemed like the division was getting too athletic for her. However, she has won five fights in a row, including a win in 2021 against Xiaonan Yan, in which Esparza delivered nonstop punishment until the fight was stopped in the second round. It’s hard to see Esparza winning on points over five rounds with a wrestling-first approach, so if Esparza is going to win, she will have to finish it on the mat. Given Namajunas’ wealth of experience since their first meeting, though, Namajunas should win.
Final Prediction:
Namajunas wins via stoppage
UFC Betting Odds
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