Memorial Day weekend found UFC in a hiatus, but the promotion returns with a huge main event at UFC 302 from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. Islam Makhachev, widely considered the best pound-for-pound fighter in MMA, will defend his UFC Lightweight belt against Dustin Poirier, making his fourth bid for a belt (and still hoping for his first title win). The co-main event will pit Paulo Costa against former UFC Middleweight champ Sean Strickland. Kevin Holland and Jailton Almeida are looking to end some losing streaks, and an interesting welterweight tussle between Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and Randy Brown will open the main card. Read on to see the full card and our UFC 302 betting predictions on the top two fights.
UFC 302 Betting Odds: Makhachev vs Poirier Fight Preview | MMA Event
Islam Makhachev -650 vs Dustin Poirier +470 UFC 302 Betting
Makhachev (25-1, 14-1) vs Poirier (30-8, 22-7) doesn’t look like a compelling fight when you look at the odds. Makhachev hasn’t lost since 2015, when Adriano Martins knocked him out. Makhachev slowly grew as a fighter since then, toiling in the shadow of Khabib Nurmagomedov. The two use similar styles, although Makhachev’s is more workmanlike, less about control and more about skill. Nurmagomedov retired in 2020, and Makhachev began to learn how to finish. His demolition of Charles Oliveira in 2022 brought him the UFC Lightweight belt. He then knocked out Volkanovski in the first round and remains one of the best MMA fighters in the world right now. Poirier is the first full-time lightweight and former UFC Lightweight challenger that Makhachev will face while defending his belt.
Poirier is one of the most venerable UFC warriors, dating back to his 2012 battle with Chan Sung Jung. That vaulted him into the spotlight as one of UFC’s most thrilling fighters. Sometimes that penchant for excitement causes him problems, as he has found ways to walk into knockouts at just the wrong time. In 2017, he beat Jim Miller on the cards, showing that he had developed a bit of patience. After that, wins over Justin Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez and Max Holloway showed his ability to blend excitement and patience. He earned a title shot against Nurmagomedov in 2019 but fell short; Poirier’s decision to try guillotine chokes went poorly but has now become a bit that never goes well for him. He did pick up some impressive wins, though, including a big victory over Dan Hooker and two wins against Conor McGregor. He got another title shot, in 2020, against Oliveira, which suggested that he might be more of a gatekeeper than a challenger. Holloway knocked out Gaethje in April, sending Gaethje out of the contender line and letting Poirier to get one final title shot after he beat Benoit St. Denis in March.
Can Poirier get the win that will define his legacy? If so, he’ll have to be patient, let Makhachev drive the pace, and find opportunities. Against St. Denis, he showed that he will let his opponents get close enough to open up offense but turn the pressure around. However, he also showed that he is still too focused on the guillotine choke, a focus that will lead to disaster against Makhachev.
UFC Pick: Makhachev wins via submission
UFC 302 Betting Sean Strickland -245 vs Paulo Costa +205
Sean Strickland (28-6, 15-6) vs Paulo Costa (14-3, 6-3) is Strickland’s first step in a journey back to the UFC Middleweight Championship. He entered UFC as a welterweight and was stuck in the middle of the ranks until he had a motorcycle wreck in 2018 that almost ended his career. He returned in 2020 at middleweight and with a transformed game, focusing on pressure boxing and staying upright, using cardio and pressure to overwhelm his opponents, relying on his vision to avoid big bombs. This made him unique in the division, and it worked all the way to the middle of 2022, when Alex Pereira delivered a violent knockout. He followed that up with a loss on the cards to Jared Cannonier. He was on the edge of elimination from title contention, but then 2023 turned into a terrific recovery. He won headliner bouts against Nassourdine Imavov and Abusupiyan Magomedov and got a title shot, where he delivered a shocking upset of Israel Adesanya. He lost the belt in his first defense to Du Plessis, but he will get another shot.
Costa had a title shot of his own back in 2019 after beating Yoel Romero, but Israel Adesanya knocked him out in the second round of a truly hideous fight; Costa’s response was that a wine hangover had cost him. A year later, he took on Marvin Vettori even though he couldn’t make weight and got the fight moved up to light heavyweight. That ended in a loss, and his cardio stamina was unimpressive. In 2022, he fought once and beat a declining Luke Rockhold on the cards. In February, though, he looked like his old self when he showed steady power and creativity against Robert Whittaker.
UFC Pick: Strickland wins via decision
Main Card at Pay Per View
- Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier (UFC Lightweight Championship)
- Sean Strickland vs Paulo Costa (Middleweight)
- Kevin Holland vs Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight)
- Jailton Almeida vs Alexander Romanov (Heavyweight)
- Randy Brown vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (Welterweight)
Preliminary Card at ESPN2/ESPN+
- Cesar Almeida vs Roman Kopylov (Middleweight)
- Grant Dawson vs Joe Solecki (Lightweight)
- Philip Rowe vs Jake Matthews (Welterweight)
- Niko Price vs Alex Morono (Welterweight)
Early Preliminary Card at ESPN+ / UFC Fight Pass
- Mickey Gall vs Bassil Hafez (Welterweight)
- Ailin Perez vs Joselyne Edwards (Women’s Bantamweight)
Here's how our #UFC302 headliners measure up 📏
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