On Saturday, UFC heads to Sao Paulo, Brazil, for UFC Fight Night 164 from Ginasio do Ibirapuera. The main event is a light heavyweight matchup between Ronaldo Souza, onetime Strikeforce Middleweight Champion, and Jan Blachowicz, a former Light Heavyweight Champion in KSW. The co-headliner is another light heavyweight fight, this one pitting Paul Craig against Mauricio Rua. You can catch all of the action in ESPN+. We have the full fight card as well as UFC odds and suggestions for several of the top bouts.
UFC Fight Night 164 Odds, Preview & Predictions
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Main Card (ESPN+)
- Jan Blachowicz vs Ronaldo Souza (Light Heavyweight)
- Mauricio Rua vs Paul Craig (Light Heavyweight)
- Charles Oliveira vs Jared Gordon (Lightweight)
- Antonio Arroyo vs Andre Muniz (Middleweight)
- Markus Perez vs Wellington Turman (Middleweight)
Preliminary Card (ESPN+)
- Sergio Moraes vs James Krause (Welterweight)
- Ricardo Ramos vs Luiz Eduardo Garagorri (Featherweight)
- Francisco Trinaldo vs Bobby Green (Lightweight)
- Warlley Alves vs Randy Brown (Welterweight)
- Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Renan Barao (Featherweight)
- Ariane Lipski vs Veronica Macedo (Women’s Flyweight)
- Vanessa Melo vs Tracy Cortez (Women’s Bantamweight)
Jan Blachowicz (24-8) vs Ronaldo Souza (26-7)
- UFC Fight Night 164 Odds: Blachowicz -200 / Souza +170
This one gives us a fighter in Souza who has always been on the verge of a title fight without actually getting the shot since he came over from Strikeforce. He lost on the cards to Yoel Romero in 2015, a decision that remains highly controversial, and after that he kept following up impressive wins such as those over Derek Brunson and Chris Weidman with losses to the likes of Kelvin Gastelum, Jack Hermansson and Robert Whittaker. The loss to Hermansson was basically a dismantling, a sign that he may finally be slowing down. His first fight as a light heavyweight, he draws a challenge in Blachowicz.
Blachowicz has rebounded nicely from sitting on the cut line for UFC in 2017. His problem is that if he cannot deliver the early finish, he is very likely to run out of gas down the stretch. He finished Jared Cannonier in 2017, and his most recent win over Luke Rockhold in July means that he is likely just one more win away from a title shot. Expect this fight to stay upright, as both of these pugilists are strikers. Blachowicz does have a reach advantage and should also have more speed than Souza. Neither one of these fighters would benefit if things go down to the mat. So while Souza might easily have won this fight in 2017, things won’t go that way this time.
Final Prediction: Blachowicz wins via decision
Mauricio Rua (26-11) vs Paul Craig (12-4)
- UFC Fight Night 164 Odds: Rua -260 / Craig +220
It features a UFC fighter with a long history of asking himself what might have been. He did hold the light heavyweight title briefly but then ended up getting dismantled by Jon Jones. He did put together a three-bout winning streak in 2017 and 2018 until he lost to Anthony Smith. In his most recent bout, he defeated Tyson Pedro in December.
Now he prepares to face Craig, one of the few submission specialists in the light heavyweight division. He pulled off a mammoth upset in 2018 by making Magomed Ankalaev tap out in the very last second of their tilt, and he submitted Kennedy Nzechukwu with just 40 seconds on the clock back in March. There are other times, though, when fighters with more athleticism just take him apart. Craig’s striking is less than average, even though he will bring occasional pressure. Avoiding the clinch will be key for Rua, but that should not be hard as Rua is stronger and has an adequate grappling defense. I see this fight going the distance, with Rua adding up enough points to prevail on the cards.
Final Prediction: Rua wins via decision
