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UFC heads south of the border this Saturday night as Arena CDMX in Mexico City will host UFC on ESPN 64 Moreno vs Erceg Odds. This is the seventh trip UFC has made to Mexico City and the first since February 2024.
The headliner is a bout between two-time former UFC Flyweight Champion Brandon Moreno and former challenger Steve Erceg. The co-headliner pits Manuel Torres against Drew Dober in a lightweight tilt.
Let’s take a look at the full fight card, as well as our sports betting predictions on some of the card’s more intriguing showdowns.
Betting UFC Fight Night Main Card: Moreno vs Erceg Odds, Prediction
Main Card (ESPN2 / ESPN+)
- Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg (Flyweight)
- Manuel Torres vs Drew Dober (Lightweight)
- Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer (Middleweight)
- Raul Rosas Jr vs Vince Morales (Bantamweight)
- David Martinez vs Saimon Oliveira (Bantamweight)
- Ronaldo Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas (Flyweight)
Preliminary Card (ESPN2 / ESPN+)
- Edgar Chairez vs C.J Vergara (Flyweight)
- Jose Daniel Medina vs Ateba Abega Gautier (Middleweight)
- Christian Rodriguez vs Melquizael Costa (Featherweight)
- Loopy Godinez vs Julia Polastri (Women’s Strawweight)
- Rafa Garcia vs Vinc Pichel (Lightweight)
- Jamall Emmers vs Gabriel Miranda (Featherweight)
- MarQuel Mederos vs Austin Hubbard (Lightweight)
Moreno vs Erceg Odds provided by Xbet
Brandon Moreno (22-8-2, 10-5-2 UFC, -238) vs Steve Erceg (12-3, 3-2 UFC, +195)
This is a main event designed to showcase one of the big names in Mexican MMA. Moreno took a while to emerge as a top UFC fighter – his early success was interrupted by two tough losses just as UFC was thinking about getting rid of the flyweight division altogether.
Brandon Moreno’s journey included a title fight against Deiveson Figueiredo that ended in a draw, followed by an upset win in the rematch. After losing to Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval, he took a mental break. Returning after eight months, he defeated Amir Albazi but aims for another title shot.
Erceg joined the UFC from Australia in 2023, showcasing a unique grappling style and surprising striking skills. After three impressive wins, he quickly earned a title shot against Pantoja due to a challenger shortage, making his rapid rise from debut to contender in just 12 months.
In the fifth round of a close fight, a takedown attempt was unsuccessful for Erceg, who has faced tough matchups, including a knockout from Kai Kara-France. His technical skills and reach pose a challenge for Moreno, but the former champ is expected to win by submission.
^Manuel Torres (15-3, 3-1 UFC, -125) vs Drew Dober (27-14, 13-10 UFC, +105)
Dober, a dramatic UFC fighter, evolved from a volume striker to showcase power in 2019. Notably, he suffered an unexpected knockout loss to Matt Frevola in May 2023 and has lost two of three recent fights, facing significant punishment.
Torres plans to test Dober’s chin, leveraging his aggressive style. After three KOs and a loss to Bahamondes, Torres must improve defense, while Dober’s resilience will influence the fight. Dober to win via knockout.
^Joe Pyfer (13-3, 4-1 UFC, -310) vs Kelvin Gastelum (19-9, 13-9 UFC, +250)
This is Pyfer’s first shot at reversing an unpleasant 2024. Way back in 2020, he went on Dana White’s Contender Series but ended up with an unsettling compound fracture of his arm, which led to a shutdown of over a year. When he came back in 2022, he won the Contender Series to get a UFC contract.
He then spent about a year and a half working his way up the middleweight ladder. In 2024, he got a main event with Jack Hermansson in which he started well but just couldn’t come up with enough new ideas. He stayed tough as the fatigue set in. He did run over Marc-Andre Barriault in his next tilt.
In 2013, Gastelum claimed victory in “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 17 as an underdog, showcasing his toughness and aggression, hinting at a potential welterweight title run. However, struggles with weight led him to middleweight, where he benefited from facing declining former champions.
He performed well against Israel Adesanya in a 2019 interim title match, but later faced a tough stretch, losing four out of five fights. After a brief return to welterweight, he was easily outmatched by Sean Brady and opted to return to middleweight, though signs of wear are evident. Pyfer to win via submission.
^Want an interesting prelim?
Edgar Chairez (11-6, 1-2 UFC, -278) vs C.J. Vergara (12-6-1, 3-4 UFC, +225)
These guys are both gatekeepers in the flyweight division, at least for now. Chairez came into UFC in 2023 despite a loss on the 2022 edition of Dana White’s Contender Series. He’s a tougher fighter than his record indicates; he has a lot of size for this division and uses it well.
He sends single shots from range that can cause problems; when opponents try to get close enough to neutralize that punch, he can grapple well. Furthermore, he beat Daniel Lacerda and fought Tatsuro Taira and Joshua Van hard in losing efforts.
Vergara entered UFC and started to build out a spot as a prospect-tester. He doesn’t have a lot of explosive athleticism, but instead likes to bring pressure and use his durability, hoping that the former will lead to an early finish and the latter will help him stack up points all the way to the end.
I see Chairez hanging back and doing damage to Vergara at range. Chairez to win via decision.
One more prelim
Loopy Godinez (12-5, 7-5 UFC, -238) vs Julia Polastri (13-4, 1-1 UFC, +195)
Godinez should seize this opportunity to pursue a title shot. Her striking prowess can be a valuable asset for her wrestling, often leaving opponents at a disadvantage. However, if she fails to gain an early advantage, her performance suffers.
Though competent on her feet, she tends to become hesitant. This was evident in losses to taller opponents like Jessica Penne and Luana Carolina. In 2024, she didn’t secure a victory but faced elite fighters like Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba.
Polastri began her career at atomweight, considering herself a bully who likes to maintain pressure on opponents. Despite a loss in her UFC debut to Josefine Lindgren Knutsson, she rebounded with a win against Cory McKenna. However, Godinez is still favored to win. Godinez to win via decision.
^The Assassin Baby is always ready to end it
— UFC (@ufc) March 28, 2025
Brandon Moreno looks to add another finish to his resume tomorrow at #UFCMexico! pic.twitter.com/TNitPDjOGx
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