UFC will return to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on July 10, 2021, leaving the APEX facility behind for an arena with fans, as Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor complete their trilogy as the main event at UFC 264. Poirier is the former interim UFC Lightweight Champion, and McGregor is a former UFC Featherweight and Lightweight Champion. The two met as featherweights at UFC 178, with McGregor delivering a TKO in the first round. At UFC 257, they met again as lightweights, and Poirier got the win, with a TKO in the second round. The trilogy will bring their rivalry to a close.
We’ll recap the second fight and look ahead to the third matchup as you consider your UFC betting on this bout, which opened with both fighters listed at a dead-even -110 moneyline.
UFC 264 Early Preview: Poirier vs McGregor 3
Poirier was able to dust off McGregor in the rematch because he came in with a whole new plan. He used a takedown in the first round to slow down McGregor’s pace. Even though McGregor brought some big strikes, he took the damage but would not let McGregor turn the action into an all-out strikefest, a format that McGregor prefers. Instead, Poirier focused on landing some devastating calf kicks, which slowed McGregor down (as did some fatigue from the intense striking he brought in the opening round. These kicks opened the door for Poirier to move in and start landing strikes of his own. That is how he brought about the finish.
Looking at the two fighters, Poirier and McGregor are the same height, but McGregor has a reach advantage of an inch. Poirier has a slight edge in the striking data, and he also is more likely to take the fight to the ground. He averages 1.5 takedowns and 1.3 submissions per 15 minutes of fighting.
Even so, both of these fighters are terrific strikers. Going into the second fight, the buzz was that Poirier would try to get McGregor to the ground, where he is not as strong, and that if Poirier decided to stay upright and trade strikes, he might end up wishing he had chosen a different strategy. However, thanks to the work that his calf kicks provided, he was able to beat McGregor with a TKO without having to go to the ground at all.
Based on those two fights, I expect to see a third fight where the combatants both stay on their feet and exchange strikes. This will keep McGregor in the match because there is always the chance that he will land a big bomb at just the right time and end the fight. However, the fact that Poirier was able to get to the TKO without going to the ground will occupy a lot of McGregor’s mind. Poirier has the greater skill set, in terms of diversity, and he moves more actively in the ring. He went into the first fight with McGregor in his head, and he lost quickly. The second time around, he brought a better approach and won fairly easily. Given that mental and skill-based edge, it would not surprise me to see Poirier take the third fight as well.
Early Prediction:
Poirier wins via KO/TKO
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