UFC took an unusual week off but now is set for a big card on Saturday night, with the third volume of the trilogy between Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor taking the headline slot at UFC 264. The co-main event pits Stephen Thompson against Gilbert Burns in a welterweight fight. Let’s review the full fight card, and we’ll also go over the updated odds for the headline events, as the UFC betting community has shifted toward Poirier in the last week.
UFC 264: Poirier vs McGregor 3 Odds and Predictions
Main Card (Pay Per View)
Dustin Poirier (27-6, 1 NC) vs Conor McGregor (22-5) (Lightweight)
Gilbert Burns (19-4) vs Stephen Thompson (16-4-1) (Welterweight)
Tai Tuivasa (12-3) vs Greg Hardy (7-3, 1 NC) (Heavyweight)
Irene Aldana (12-6) vs Yana Kunitskaya (14-5, 1 NC) (Women’s Bantamweight)
Sean O’Malley (13-1) vs Louis Smolka (17-7) (Bantamweight)
Preliminary Card (ESPN)
Carlos Condit (32-13) vs Max Griffin (17-8) (Welterweight)
Niko Price (14-4, 2 NC) vs Michel Pereira (25-11, 2 NC) (Welterweight)
Ryan Hall (8-1) vs Ilia Topuria (10-0) (Featherweight)
Early Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Trevin Giles (14-2) vs Dricus Du Plessis (15-2) (Middleweight)
Jennifer Maia (18-7-1) vs Jessica Eye (15-9, 1 NC) (Women’s Flyweight)
Omari Akhmedov (21-5-1) vs Brad Tavares (18-7) (Middleweight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (13-5) vs Jerome Rivera (10-5) (Flyweight)
Yaozong Hu (3-2) vs Alen Amedovski (8-2) (Middleweight)
Dustin Poirier (27-6, 19-5 UFC, -130) vs Conor McGregor (22-5, 10-3 UFC, +110) will mark an interesting point in McGregor’s career arc, whether he takes a second beating from Poirier within six months or reasserts himself and takes the trilogy. At one point, McGregor was the first two-division simultaneous champion in UFC; since then, his fighting has taken a stepback, even as his promotional footprint has grown after his boxing match with Floyd Mayweather and his MMA return against Khabib Nurmagomedov, which McGregor ended up losing. He did run right over Donald Cerrone in January 2020.
The first fight with Poirier in 2014 sent Poirier up from featherweight to lightweight, and he used the advantage of his superior cardio to demolish opponents, with three speedy knockouts in his four-fight winning streak to start his run in that division. He still eats a lot of punishment, but with leg kicks and wrestling, he was able to get past McGregor’s pressure and deliver the win in the January rematch. Poirier has taken this fight instead of a shot at the lightweight belt, with the title vacant upon Nurmagomedov’s retirement.
Watching McGregor and Poirier in January looked like old-school vs new-school MMA. McGregor takes the old approach, looking to bring the fight to an early close, as he did in their first fight. However, Poirier was more composed this time and stuck to his strategy. The calf kicks surprised McGregor, but they should not have, because they have become a popular strategy. If McGregor is to win, he must adjust his game — but how hungry is he, and how much more wear and tear can he take? How does he stack up with Poirier at this point in time in terms of weapons at his disposal? It would not surprise me to see McGregor start strong and then work hard for a dramatic finish — but to see Poirier observe the finish coming, evade it, and then take over the fight, as he did in January.
Final Prediction: Poirier wins via stoppage
Stephen Thompson (16-4-1, 11-4-1 UFC, -155) vs Gilbert Burns (19-4, 12-4 UFC, +135) brings together two welterweights angling for a title shot. Thompson has already been a contender, and he got a pair of shots against Tyron Woodley, earning a draw in the first and losing the second in ugly fashion. His karate-based style is hard for opponents to figure out, as we saw in recent wins over Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal.
Burns worked his way through the lightweight division, mowing down opponent after opponent, and once he had a hard time finding opposition, he moved up to welterweight, which paid off thanks to his cardio advantage. He won four straight after moving up, including a win over Woodley in May 2020. He faced Kamaru Usman for the welterweight title in February but got finished in the third round. That means that if Burns wants to get another shot at the belt, he needs to beat Thompson first. Thompson uses range and stance and allows his opponent to decide whether he wants to engage or run away. Burns has the advantage of speed, and he is the better wrestler. Even so, Thompson still has the experience and the tools to win this.
Final Prediction: Thompson wins via decision
UFC Betting Odds
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