On Saturday night, Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier will meet at UFC 264 in Las Vegas, at T-Mobile Arena, as the main event. This represents the final fight in their trilogy, which dates back to UFC 178 in September 2014. In that fight, McGregor prevailed via technical knockout in the first round. The rematch came in January of this year at UFC 257, where Poirier knocked McGregor out in the second round. The odds have remained dead even, for the most part, for the trilogy. Can McGregor show what he has learned from that loss in January?
As you consider your UFC betting for this fight, look at some arguments for McGregor to emerge as the winner.
UFC 264: Why Conor McGregor Will Beat Dustin Poirier
One important factor for McGregor is motivation. McGregor may have come into UFC 257 a bit overconfident, but as Poirier poured on the leg kicks, that overconfidence slowly turned into a vivid awareness that his own ability to move and deliver punishment was under attack, and McGregor was not able to make adjustments in time to avoid defeat. It is possible that McGregor did not credit Poirier with enough adaptability in his game. So even though 6 ½ years had gone by between meetings, McGregor went in making assumptions about his opponent’s game that did not turn out to be true. So McGregor held to a strategy of counter-punching with his left, with the goal of coming over Poirier’s jab and catching him unaware with that left. However, standing in that position left McGregor’s lead leg available for Poirier to pound, and McGregor never adjusted. Through a series of low kicks, Poirier turned that leg into a liability, slowing McGregor down and reducing his finishing power with a punch. Over the course of the short fight, McGregor showed clear signs of distress thanks to the damage done to that lead leg.
Revenge, then, plays a key part. According to Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett, McGregor will deliver a knockout. From the rumor mill, we’ve been hearing that McGregor has been training with a new vigor since losing to Poirier so that he can end the rivalry with a big win. This would not be the first time that McGregor has returned from a tough loss to gain redemption and revenge. In March 2016, he fell to Nate Diaz via submission, but then five months later, he delivered a win to tie their rivalry at one win apiece. According to Pimblett, McGregor should learn from the experience he gained from taking those kicks to the calf and come back with a different defensive approach.
A lot of prognosticators (including ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith) have found disappointment in their conversations about a McGregor win. This time around, McGregor has all the pressure, with this match coming just six months after Poirier knocked him out in the second round. That pressure could prove to be an incubator that pushes him to victory. It could also cause him to crack, but McGregor has proven rock solid more often than not.
In addition to McGregor’s lead leg, it is also important to note that Poirier will go after McGregor’s cardio — and the best way to do that in the Octagon is to take things to the mat. Poirier was able to do this early at UFC 257, but McGregor got out and back up on his feet. He stayed relaxed throughout and got Poirier turned in the direction of the cage. However, the stress of this position proved notable, and McGregor could not hold the advantage.
It will also be interesting to see if McGregor starts kicking back. It is important in MMA for fighters to establish their kicking; legs are generally longer than arms, so a fighter who goes legs-first will make contact sooner than someone who starts from the top. At UFC 257, McGregor no longer had a strong base for his punches after Poirier eroded his legs with those calves. With all of these factors, it’s fairly easy to argue for McGregor to win.
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