UFC will head to Houston, Texas, for the interim UFC Heavyweight Championship bout between Ciryl Gane and former challenger Derrick Lewis. Lewis was supposed to take on the current champion, Francis Ngannou, but Ngannou would not defend his title. The co-headliner will pit Amanda Nunes, the current UFC Women’s Bantamweight and Featherweight Champion, against Julianna Pena, as Nunes will defend her bantamweight belt against Pena.
Let’s look at the early UFC betting odds as well as some thoughts about the matchups.
UFC 265: Early Odds for Gane vs Lewis
The matchup between Ciryl Gane (9-0, 6-0 UFC) and Derrick Lewis (25-7, 16-5 UFC) was a shocker in MMA. Gane opened as a -275 favorite, with Lewis as the underdog at +220. The gap has widened since then, with Gane’s odds moving to -333 and Lewis offering at +250. The odds of a draw sit at +5000.
Lewis is the #2 ranked heavyweight contender in UFC and won his last fight in February, knocking out Curtis Blaydes. He has a four-fight winning streak that comes after a two-fight skid that had included a loss to Daniel Cormier in a fight for the UFC Heavyweight Championship in 2018. His weakness comes in his conditioning, but he brings significant punching power and strength. No one has knocked out more fighters in the heavyweight division than he has, with a dozen.
Gane is ranked #3 in the heavyweight decision; his last fight was a unanimous victory on the cards against Alexander Volkov back in June. Gane will have the edge in conditioning in athleticism, although you should not underestimate his striking game. He was an elite kickboxer and Muay Thai fighter before coming to MMA. He has also learned the grappling part of MMA quickly, delivering three wins via submission.
Gane is the favorite despite holding the lower ranking because of his ability to deliver strikes with more output and accuracy. He can also last longer than Lewis in terms of cardio. Lewis has one weapon on his side — the ability to end the fight with a single punch. If we look back to his knockout win against Volkov three years ago, this can give us some perspective. Lewis’ last three wins have come over wrestling specialists; Volkov was the last striker that Lewis had to fight. Volkov was stacking up the points thanks to his kickboxing and then Lewis delivered the key right hand near the end of the third round, securing the win.
It is possible that Lewis could pull off a similar moment against Gane. However, Gane has superior movement, quickness and defense when compared to Volkov, as we saw when Gane took Volkov apart in June. With his grappling and Muay Thai background, Gane also has the edge when it comes to inside exchanges. So if Lewis can get near enough to deliver a knockout blow, Gane could take the edge in the pocket.
I like Gane to win, at least for now, and he will do it on the cards. Lewis’ best shot is to deliver the knockout, so a smart game plan for Gane would be to avoid the sort of proximity that a knockout blow would require. Gane has fought some other big bombers in the heavyweight division recently and has not taken much in the way of damage. He went 25 minutes against Volkov and is returning to the Octagon just six weeks afterward, indicating that Volkov did not deliver much damage. Gane only absorbs 2.60 significant strikes per minute even though he has fought such high-volume fighters as Tanner Boser, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Volkov, and all three went fights lasted the distance. Lewis only lands 2.59 significant strikes per minute, so unless he can knock out Gane with one of them, Gane should have plenty of time to stack up the points. So the smart picks are Gane to win on the cards — which means the fight will go the distance.
UFC Betting Odds
Love betting on the UFC fights? | Xbet Sportsbook offers up to date UFC lines
