International Fight Week returns to UFC after a one-year hiatus as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the climax of the festivities is UFC 266, set for Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Two title bouts bring the evening to a close, as Alexander Volkanovski will defend his UFC Featherweight belt against Brian Ortega, and Valentina Shevchenko faces Lauren Murphy in a UFC Women’s Flyweight title defense.
Don’t miss the full fight card, along with our online UFC betting predictions for the two title fights.
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs Ortega Preview
Main Card (ESPN+ Pay Per View)
Alexander Volkanovski vs Brian Ortega (UFC Featherweight Championship)
Valentina Shevchenko vs Lauren Murphy (UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship)
Nick Diaz vs Robbie Lawler (Middleweight)
Curtis Blaydes vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (Heavyweight)
Jessica Andrade vs Cynthia Calvillo (Women’s Flyweight)
Preliminary Card (ESPN+ / ESPNews)
Marlon Moraes vs Merab Dvalishvili (Bantamweight)
Dan Hooker vs Nasrat Haqparast (Lightweight)
Shamil Abdurakhimov vs Chris Daukaus (Heavyweight)
Roxanne Modafferi vs Taila Santos (Women’s Flyweight)
Early Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Uros Medic vs Jalin Turner (Lightweight)
Cody Brundage vs Nick Maximov (Middleweight)
Matthew Semelsberger vs Martin Sano Jr (Welterweight)
Jonathan Pearce vs Omar Morales (Featherweight)
Alexander Volkanovski (-155) vs Brian Ortega (+135) is the first meeting in the Octagon for these two fighters, but they coached against each other during Season 29 of The Ultimate Fighter. Volkanovski has won 19 fights in a row, including a win in his most recent title defense at UFC 251, where he held off Max Holloway via split decision. Ortega has won seven fights in his last eight, but he has been off since October 17, when he beat Chan Sung Jung at UFC Fight Night 180 unanimously on the cards.
Of Volkanovski’s 22 career wins, 11 have come via knockout or TKO, which is a high percentage at this weight class. Three of his other 11 wins have come by submission, with the other eight coming on the cards. He lands 6.16 strikes per minute, which ranks third all-time among all UFC featherweights. The only ones ahead of him are Shane Burgos (7.29) and Max Holloway (7.18). He has been the undisputed champion since December 14, 2019, when he took down Holloway on the cards at UFC 245.
Ortega has 15 career wins, seven coming by submission. He has used the triangle choke most frequently (four times) and the guillotine choke twice. He has three wins via knockout or TKO and five on the cards. He has finished four fighters in the first round, but only one of those came in UFC. This looks like a fairly even fight, although the long layoff that Ortega has had could lead to some rust.
Final Prediction:
Volkanovski wins via decision
Valentina Shevchenko (-1600) vs Lauren Murphy (+900) looks to be an uneven fight that has seen the odds skew even further since the lines opened. Shevchenko opened at -720, but the action piled up so heavily on her side despite the lack of value that that number has almost doubled. One reason for this is the dominance that Shevchenko has shown in her five consecutive title defenses. Most recently, she took down Jessica Andrade at UFC 261 via TKO. She has held the belt since UFC 231, when she won the vacant title with a victory over Joanna Jedrzejczyk on the cards. Shevchenko is most dominant when the fight stays upright, but her grappling game has also improved, as she particularly showed in that most recent win. Expect Shevchenko to start with a furious pace in the striking game and then move things to the ground.
Murphy earned a shot at the belt after upsetting Joanne Calderwood in a split decision. Murphy impressed during her run on Season 26 of The Ultimate Fighter and has won five fights in a row since then. She is a former world champ in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and uses swift transitions to take down opponents. She also has a strong striking game, and she also can deliver hard elbows in the clinch. Her grappling game is also elite, so she could challenge Shevchenko on a number of fronts. Murphy has won belts before in MMA; she used to be the Invicta FC Women’s Bantamweight champ. If she is going to have a chance here, she will need to wait for the storm of the opening rounds to pass and then look for openings.
Final Prediction:
Shevchenko via KO/TKO
UFC Betting Odds
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