UFC Fight Night 195 has undergone a lot of scheduling changes since Miehsa Tate and Ketlen Vieira were supposed to fight in the main event. After Tate had to withdraw with a COVID-19 positive test, the bout was replaced with a featherweight bout between Holly Holm and Norma Dumont. Holm had to withdraw due to injury, and Aspen Ladd stepped in to fight in the headliner. The co-main event pits Andrei Arlovski against Carlos Felipe in a heavyweight fight.
Let’s break down the whole fight card with UFC betting predictions for the top two bouts.
UFC Fight Night 195: Ladd vs Dumont Preview
Main Card (ESPN+)
Aspen Ladd vs Norma Dumont (Women’s Featherweight)
Andrei Arlovski vs Carlos Felipe (Heavyweight)
Jim Miller vs Erick Gonzalez (Lightweight)
Manon Fiorot vs Mayra Bueno Silva (Women’s Flyweight)
Nate Landwehr vs Ludovit Klein (Featherweight)
Preliminary Card (ESPN+)
Andrew Sanchez vs Bruno Silva (Middleweight)
Danny Roberts vs Ramazan Emeev (Welterweight)
Lupita Godinez vs Luana Carolina (Women’s Flyweight)
Danaa Batgerel vs Brandon Davis (Bantamweight)
Istela Nunes vs Ariane Carnelossi (Women’s Strawweight)
Aspen Ladd (9-1, 4-1 UFC, -137) vs Norma Dumont (6-1, 2-1 UFC, +117) looks like a fairly even fight between two MMA fighters looking to make their mark in the division. Ladd finally gets to move up to her natural division. Ladd has struggled in the past with slow starts and a lack of defense, and that became apparent in her main event loss to Germaine de Randamie, who knocked her out in just 16 seconds. Since then, she has only fought once, back in December 2019 in a win over Yana Kunitskaya that saw Ladd hesitate for two rounds before taking things to the mat in the third, only needing 33 seconds to finish the fight. However, a knee injury kept Ladd on the shelf for 2020. She missed weight against Macy Chiasson just two weeks ago, but for this fight she didn’t have to cut as much.
Dumont also has the issue of hanging between two weight classes. In her featherweight debut, she got knocked out by Megan Anderson, so she planned to drop down, but then she had a hard time making weight at bantamweight, so she went up in May to fight Felicia Spencer at featherweight in May. Dumont likes to use physicality and aggression and got the upset win over Spencer. Both women like to use their physicality instead of technical fighting skills. Dumont should jump the early lead, but will Ladd have the instincts and acumen to get Dumont to the mat? I’m not sure I see it, so I’m taking the value.
Final Prediction: Dumont wins via decision
Carlos Felipe (11-1, 3-1 UFC, -115) vs Andrei Arlovski (31-20, 20-14 UFC, -105) pits the somewhat ageless Arlovski, with his newly discovered iron chin, against Felipe. Arlovski is tough to beat unless his opponent has knockout power or can get things to the mat and control the bout. If neither of those happens, he likes to sit back and exchange jabs — and he knows how to win on the cards. Since 2019, the only fighter to beat him has been Tom Aspinall.
Felipe is the latest younger fighter to take a crack at Arlovski, and he comes in on a three-fight winning streak. He signed with UFC in 2017 but then had to serve a drug suspension. He likes to bring lots of pressure, and so he is vulnerable to solid defenders and wrestlers, as we saw in his loss to Sergey Spivak. However, he has the durability to eat some punishment, and his cardio is above average for the heavyweight division. He also has more aggressiveness than a lot of Arlovski’s recent counterparts, so he might be able to bring the volume and the pace to win. For now, though, Felipe’s lack of defense should make him vulnerable to someone with Arlovski’s experience and savvy.
Final Prediction: Arlovski wins via decision
UFC Betting Odds
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