UFC remains in the Middle East this weekend, as UFC on ESPN 16 is set for very early on Sunday, October 4, from the Flash Forum on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates. Fans in North America will be able to catch the action on Saturday evening due to the time difference. The main event features Holly Holm, the former UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion, and Irene Aldana, in a bantamweight tilt. The co-headliner will pit Yorgan de Castro against Carlos Felipe in a heavyweight showdown.
We have the full fight card as well as UFC betting insights on the key bouts.
UFC on ESPN 16:
Holm vs Aldana (October 4)
UFC Main Card | ESPN / ESPN+
Holly Holm vs Irene Aldana (Women’s Bantamweight)
Yorgan de Castro vs Carlos Felipe (Heavyweight)
Germaine de Randamie vs Julianna Pena (Women’s Bantamweight)
Kyler Phillips vs Cameron Else (Bantamweight)
Dequan Townsend vs Dusko Todorovic (Middleweight)
UFC Preliminary Card | ESPN+
Carlos Condit vs Court McGee (Welterweight)
Charles Jourdain vs Josh Culibao (Featherweight)
Jordan Williams vs Nassourdine Imavov (Middleweight)
Loma Lookboonmee vs Jinh Yu Frey (Women’s Strawweight)
Casey Kenney vs Heili Alateng (Bantamweight)
Luigi Vendramini vs Jessin Ayari (Lightweight)
Holly Holm vs Irene Aldana
Holly Holm (13-5, -125) vs Irene Aldana (12-5, +105) is Holm’s latest fight in which she is asked to serve as a sort of gatekeeper for contenders in the classification. MMA fans will always remember the way in which Holm broke Ronda Rousey, but since then she has never recaptured that transcendent moment with any other opponent. She lost her bantamweight belt to Miesha Tate and then lost emphatically to Valentina Shevchenko…and then to Germaine de Randamie on the cards. Somehow, Holm has remained on the edge of the title picture despite those losses, as she still got title shots against Cristiane Justino and Amanda Nunes. Nunes made short work of Holm, finishing her in the first round. It looks like the UFC is just using her as a spoiler now.
Aldana came in from Invicta FC when the UFC was working to grow its presence in Mexico. In her UFC debut, Aldana got taken apart by Leslie Smith, whose pressure game made Aldana look like a slow boxer. After losing her first two fights in UFC, she won three in a row, including a victory over Bethe Correia. It was her knockout win over Ketlen Vieira, though, that elevated her to contender status. Holm looks to neutralize her opponents rather than overpower them, which could turn this into a slow fight with scant striking. If Aldana is willing to move in and deliver some punishment while Holm hangs back, Aldana could get enough points to win. However, Holm has worked on her grappling to win rounds and run out the clock on fights.
Final Prediction:
Holm wins via decision | Check the Odds
Yorgan de Castro vs Carlos Felipe
Yorgan de Castro (6-1, -265) vs Carlos Felipe (8-1, +225) is a matchup of unranked heavyweights that bring some unusual traits to the Octagon. De Castro is short but brings steady basics with his game. He could turn up his willingness to apply pressure, but he is more likely than not just to deliver kicks to the legs until his opponents crack and show an opening. When Justin Tafa wearied of the kicks and ran at de Castro, he found himself on the wrong end of a knockout. When Greg Hardy met de Castro, though, Hardy was able to separate himself and just wait until he had stacked up enough points to win.
Felipe had some controversy around his scheduled UFC debut in 2017, testing positive for a banned substance but then getting brought back to the promotion. Felipe finally made his actual debut back in July, losing on the cards to Sergey Spivak and not showing much in the way of defense. Similar pressure by Felipe will end up with him eating a de Castro bomb at just the wrong time.
Final Prediction:
De Castro wins via knockout | Check the Odds
UFC Betting Odds
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