Now that the dust has settled from Dustin Poirier’s TKO win over Conor McGregor at UFC 264, it’s time to look at this weekend’s MMA battles. UFC on ESPN 26 is set for Saturday night at the UFC APEX facility in Las Vegas. The main event was supposed to feature Max Holloway, a former UFC Featherweight Champion, against Yair Rodriguez, who won The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America in the featherweight division. Holloway had to withdraw due to injury. The new main event is a lightweight tilt between Thiago Moises and Islam Makhachev. The co-headliner will pit Marion Reneau against one-time Strikeforce and UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Miesha Tate, who has not fought since UFC 205, when Raquel Pennington beat her on the cards unanimously.
Take a look at the full card, along with our UFC Betting thoughts on the top matchups.
UFC on ESPN 26: Makhachev vs Moises Preview
Main Card (ESPN / ESPN+)
Islam Makhachev vs Thiago Moises (Lightweight)
Marion Reneau vs Miesha Tate (Women’s Bantamweight)
Jeremy Stephens vs Mateusz Gamrot (Lightweight)
Rodolfo Vieira vs Dustin Stoltzfus (Middleweight)
Gabriel Benitez vs Billy Quarantillo (Featherweight)
Preliminary Card (ESPN / ESPN+)
Daniel Rodriguez vs Preston Parsons (Welterweight)
Amanda Lemos vs Montserrat Ruiz (Women’s STrawweight)
Khalid Taha vs Sergey Morozov (Bantamweight)
Miles Johns vs Anderson dos Santos (Bantamweight)
Francisco Figueiredo vs Malcolm Gordon (Flyweight)
Alan Baudot vs Rodrigo Nascimento (Heavyweight)
Islam Makhachev (19-1, -600) vs Thiago Moises (15-4, +450) gives us Russia’s next great UFC fighter after Khabib Nurmagedov’s surprise retirement from the sport. Makhachev has a decent striking game, but it is his wrestling game that is his bread and butter, especially if things aren’t going well on his feet. Makhachev’s only loss came in his second UFC fight, when Adriano Martins knocked him out. He has now won seven fights in a row, including an easy win over Drew Dober that marked Makhachev’s first win against one of the more talented fighters in the lightweight division. Now he gets his first main event against another burgeoning talent in Moises.
Moises started out in UFC focusing on his wrestling and grappling, and that did not work well against Beneil Dariush and DAmir Ismagulov. However, he has now won three straight fights, beating Michael Johnson via ankle lock in the second round, and Moises showed wrestling skills and counter-striking in each of those three wins. Moises would need to generate a finish in order to win, as Makhachev has the tools and the talent to control the fight’s pacing. It would be difficult for Moises to get Makhachev to the ground — and it remains to be seen where Moises would even want to go there. It is likely that Makhachev will keep things upright and take apart Moises with striking before moving to the ground. Moises has shown he can go five rounds, but Makhachev has shown he can control a fight that long.
Final Prediction:
Makhachev wins via decision
Miesha Tate (18-7, -140) vs Marion Reneau (9-7-1, +120) marks Tate’s return to the Octagon after 4 ½ years. Tate had picked up one of the more entertaining finishes in UFC history, finishing Holly Holm via submission with a choke with only 1:30 left on the clock for the fight. After that, though, she got obliterated by Amanda Nunes in a title defense at UFC 200 and then came out flat against Raquel Pennington, losing in convincing fashion. Since then, Tate has become a mother and moved into a front-office gig with ONE Championship.
Instead, Tate returns against Reneau, who is almost 44 — and who will retire herself after this fight. Reneau earned a spot in the promotion with victories over Alexis Dufresne and Jessica Andrade before losing to Holly Holm; that loss showed the difficulty that Reneau has in using her athleticism and power consistently over the course of a bout. Reneau is still a dangerous fighter but has lost four in a row, with her last win coming in a last-minute submission victory over Sara McMann. Reneau could deliver a submission or cause an injury, depending on how Tate looks. Given the lack of predictability, I’m taking Reneau and the slight edge in value.
UFC Betting Odds
Love betting on the UFC fights? | Xbet Sportsbook offers up to date UFC lines
