The Arlington Renegades travel to Houston to take on the Roughnecks in the XFL semifinals on Saturday night. The teams met in Arlington in Week 10, with Houston prevailing, 25-9. However, both teams already had guaranteed slots in the playoffs, so both teams either kept some of their starters out altogether or played them sparingly. Houston ended with a 7-3 record (6-0 in the South Division). Arlington has a stout defense, but some of its key contributors only played part of the game in Week 10. Can the Renegades post the upset, or will their season end in Houston? Don’t miss our XFL betting preview of this playoff showdown.
XFL Betting Preview: South Division Championship
Arlington Renegades at Houston Roughnecks
When: Saturday, April 29, 2023, 7:00 pm ET
Where: TDECU Stadium, Houston
TV: ESPN2
Radio: No National Broadcast
Live Stream: Sling TV
XFL Odds: Houston -6.5 / O/U 41.5 // Arlington +205 / Houston -245
Why should you bet on the Renegades?
Luis Perez showed that he can move the Arlington offense up and down the field, going 22 of 36 for 205 yards, but he threw a costly interception when the Renegades were driving for a possible score. He also carried the ball three times for 20 yards. Leddie Brown struggled at tailback, though, carrying the ball 14 times for just 29 yards. The Arlington offensive line will have to open up more holes if the Renegades are going to find the end zone instead of just settling for three field goals.
Perez found seven different targets, but only one completion went for more than 20 yards. The Arlington O-line also struggles to give Perez enough time to let slower-developing plays open up down the field. On defense, Darnell Sankey led the team with eight tackles (one solo), while Colin Schooler had the team’s lone sack and two tackles for loss. The Renegades will need more defensive penetration to keep things close for the offense.
Bet on the Renegades!
Why should you put your money on the Roughnecks?
Jeremy Cox has been a find at tailback for Houston. In Week 10, he made his second appearance and ran the ball 21 times for 120 yards and a score. He also ran for another 45-yard score that was called back because of a hold. Arlington actually had cut Cox in February, so he has plenty of motivation to show his old team the mistake they made by letting him go.
The Roughnecks were able to pick up this win despite using backup quarterback Cole McDonald. He had nine straight completions at one point before throwing a pick in the end zone, but the game was in garbage time at that point. He scampered for 39 yards, a run that was the longest offensive play of the game for both teams. On the day, he was 10 of 11 for 120 yards with the pick and ran the ball eight times for 66 yards and a score. On defense, linebacker Tavante Beckett put the dagger in the Renegades’ hopes when he got a pick-six off a Luis Perez pass that was deflected by Ajene Harris. He also posted six tackles (three solo) and a pair of tackles for loss.
Bet on the Roughnecks!
Final Score and Prediction
I don’t think Arlington will lose by 16 points again, but I also don’t see Arlington managing enough offense to get past Houston. The Renegades have largely benefited from playing teams that have minimal offense in their wins. It also helps that the South Division is the weaker of the two; the Renegades got into the playoffs despite a 4-6 record and a -48 point differential on the season. I predict a final score of Houston 20, Arlington 13.
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