Houston at LA Dodgers World Series Game 1 Odds & Pick

Posted by Rogelio Aguas on October 23, 2017 in

This season’s Fall Classic features a pair of teams that both went over the 100-win mark during the regular season, as the Houston Astros represent the American League and the Los Angeles Dodgers represent the National League. The Astros eliminated the Boston Red Sox in four games in their American League Division Series but found themselves pushed to the limit by the youthful New York Yankees, needing seven games (including the last two wins at home) to eliminate the Baby Bombers and advance to the World Series.

The Dodgers swept division rivals Arizona in their National League Division Series before advancing to the National League Championship Series to face the defending World Series champions, the Chicago Cubs. The Dodgers only needed five games to eliminate the champs, posting an 11-1 rout in the deciding game at Wrigley Field. Now we move to the World Series, and both teams have their aces on the mound to open the action. The Dodgers are in the Fall Classic for the first time since 1988 — when they won the whole thing — while the Astros have made it for the first time as an American League team and only the second time overall. In 2005, they made it to the Series from the National League but were swept by the Chicago White Sox in four games. Check out our MLB odds prediction for the opener before you commit any money on the outcome.

Houston at LA Dodgers World Series Game 1 Odds & Pick

When: Tuesday, October 24, 2017, 8:09pm ET
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Radio: ESPN Radio
Live Stream: Fox Sports Go
World Series Odds for Game 1: Dodgers -160
Pitching Matchup: Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90 ERA) (HOU) vs Clayton Kershaw (18-4, 2.31 ERA) (LA)

Weather Forecast

  • Clear: 29°C/85°F
  • Humidity: 25%
  • Precipitation: 0%
  • Wind: 7 mph NE
  • Cloud Cover: 0%
  • Type of Stadium: Open

Why should you bet on the Astros?

Dallas Keuchel will be making his first World Series start, but he has already put together a solid record in his postseason career. He has made five starts and has posted a combined 1.78 ERA over those outings. He posted a 1-1 record in the ALCS, throwing 11 ⅓ combined innings and permitting four earned runs. Only three of the Dodgers’ regulars have ever faced Keuchel, and only Chase Utley (1 for 4 lifetime) and Logan Forsythe (7 for 20 lifetime) have ever hit safely against him.

Houston scored 5.53 points per game this season, the most in MLB. Away from Minute Maid Park, they were even better, scoring 6.19 runs per game. Their offense had an OPS+ that was 27 percent higher than the league average. The Astros’ bats went mysteriously quiet in the three ALCS games in New York, but they were back to their old power tricks in Games Six and Seven down in Houston. If you like the Astros, you think they can handle Kershaw like they have handled all of the other tough pitchers they have faced this postseason.

Why should you put your money on the Dodgers?

Clayton Kershaw has thrown 17 ⅓ innings so far in this postseason, posting a combined 3.63 ERA. He threw six innings against the Cubs in Game Five of the NLCS, permitting just a single run as his teammates bashed the Cubs’ pitching staff for 11 runs. While Jose Altuve is 5 for 11 lifetime against Kershaw, and Carlos Beltran has gone 3 for 10, the rest of the Astros’ regulars have only combined for seven base hits lifetime against the Dodgers’ ace.

Are the Dodgers a safe bet  in Game 1 of the World Series?

Also, the Dodgers’ offense has been the story of this postseason, even though the media coverage has been all about that dominant starting rotation. They have scored 48 runs in their eight postseason games so far, while permitting just 19. Shortstop Corey Seager (back) did miss the NLCS, but the Dodgers have not yet released their World Series roster, so he may well be back on the list. The Dodgers will have their hands full with Keuchel on the mound, but after the Yankees shelled him in Game Five of the ALCS, there may be a way for the Dodgers to hit him hard as well.

World Series Betting Trends for Game 1

  • Astros are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 games
  • Astros are 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
  • The total  went UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
  • LA Dodgers are 9-1 SU in the last 10 games
  • LA Dodgers are 5-0 SU in the last 5 games at home
  • The total went UNDER in 5 of Dodgers’s last 6 games when playing Houston

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

The Dodgers posted an ERA+ that was 24 percent than the MLB average. Historically, pitching beats hitting in the World Series, and teams that rely on hitting power tend to fade as they advance. I see Kershaw outdueling Keuchel in a 3-1 win for the Dodgers.