Alabama at Mississippi State College Football Odds & Week 11 Pick

It’s been a tale of two seasons for the Mississippi State Bulldogs in 2017. They routed LSU at home back in Week Three, 37-7 before losing at Georgia and Auburn by a combined score of 80-13. They took the bye week and then have reeled off four straight wins, knocking off BYU, Kentucky and UMass at home and routing Texas A&M on the road. Sitting at 7-2 and ranked #16 in the nation, they prepare to welcome top-ranked Alabama, entering with a 9-0 record and coming in off a 24-10 win over the LSU Tigers. Can the Bulldogs cause havoc in the SEC (and in the College Football Playoff) by knocking off the Crimson Tide? Or will Alabama use this as yet another occasion to make a statement about their place in the CFP rankings? Take a look at our College Football odds preview of this SEC West showdown.

Alabama at Mississippi State College Football Odds & Week 11 Pick

History for Hurts#OutworkYesterday #RollTide pic.twitter.com/SLWXr2Xyhs

— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) November 8, 2017

When: Saturday, November 11, 2017, 7:00pm ET Where: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS TV: ESPN Radio: Alabama Crimson Tide Sports Network / Mississippi State Sports Network Live Stream: WatchESPN College Football Odds: Alabama -14.5

Why should you bet on the Crimson Tide?

Alabama had put up a combined total of 86 points in wins over Arkansas and Tennessee, but that sort of offense was not on display in the win over LSU. On the day, the Tide only produced 299 yards, as LSU was able to bottle up the Alabama running game. Bo Scarbrough carried the ball 11 times for just 39 yards, while Damien Harris only picked up 33 yards on nine attempts. Quarterback Jalen Hurts led the team in rushing, picking up 44 yards and a touchdown on 14 attempts. Mississippi State may well follow the LSU tactic of loading the box with eight defenders to bottle up the run — but do the Bulldogs have the secondary to stop Jalen Hurts? On defense, the Tide have put up historic numbers this season. In SEC play, Alabama has permitted 48 points in six games — and 19 of those came in their game at Texas A&M. So even when their offense has slightly sputtered, they have had plenty of margin for error with that stifling scoring defense. If you see the Tide covering here, you see their defense managing a Mississippi State attack that did hang 37 points on LSU, while their offense goes back to scoring at will against the Bulldogs.

Why should you put your money on the Bulldogs?

Mississippi State got a big scare last week, as the UMass Minutemen led their contest 20-13 at halftime. It took an 83-yard punt return by Deddrick Thomas to salt away the game for the Bulldogs. Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald did continue to show that he is a double threat on offense, passing for 139 yards and running for 135 more, scoring twice in the third period as the Bulldogs turned that halftime deficit into a 27-20 advantage. The problem for Mississippi State against Alabama, of course, will come on defense. If the Bulldogs permitted 23 points to UMass, it’s hard to imagine them keeping Alabama below 30 or 40 in this contest. The tandem of Jalen Hurts and Bo Scarbrough will be better than any duo that Mississippi State has faced this year, and so it’s pretty easy to imagine Alabama getting out in front in a hurry and keeping the pedal down, especially given the fact that Alabama sits behind Georgia at #2 in the College Football Playoff rankings.

Latest  NCAAF Betting Trends

• Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
• Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Alabama’s last 8 games on the road
• Mississippi State is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
• Mississippi State is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi State’s last 7 games

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

Alabama lost their fourth starting linebacker to injury against LSU, in Shaun Dion Hamilton. SAfety Minkah Fitzpatrick only played occasionally in the LSU game thanks to a hamstring injury. Hamilton is likely done for the year, as is linebacker Mack Wilson, who hurt his foot. Alabama has only covered the spread twice in their last seven games against teams with records above .500. With those injuries in mind, I see Mississippi State covering the College Football Odds, with a final score of Alabama 30, Mississippi State 17.