One pundit compared LSU head coach Ed Orgeron to the character Bobby Boucher from the movie “Waterboy” as Alabama just slapped the Tigers around on their home field a week ago, a game in which LSU had thought they might mount a real challenge to the Crimson Tide. After all, LSU had already stopped then-#2 Georgia by a 36-16 score at home and followed that up with a 19-3 whipping of Mississippi State, but then Alabama came in and delivered a 29-0 shutout. Now the Tigers head across the state line to Arkansas to take on a Razorbacks team that has only beaten FCS foe Eastern Illinois and AAC doormat Tulsa this year, losing to Colorado State and to North Texas — at home, no less — along with all of their SEC competition. They had their bye week last week, but before that they had taken a 45-31 beating from Vanderbilt at home. Will this be a letdown game for LSU? Or will they open the floodgates on the Razorbacks? Read our NCAAF betting preview to get our take on the game.
LSU vs Arkansas NCAA Football Week 11 Odds & Pick
— LSU Football (@LSUfootball) November 4, 2018
When: Saturday, November 10, 2018, 7:30pm ET
Where: Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
TV: SEC ESPN Network
Radio: LSU Sports Radio Network / Razorback Sports Network from IMG
Live Stream: WatchESPN
NCAA Football Week 11 Odds: LSU -14
Why should you bet on the Tigers?
LSU quarterback Joe Burrows is a “bus driver” of a signal-caller at best — he is good at leading the offense down the field without turning the ball over, but he’s not going to make big plays down the field. With the pressure that Alabama was able to put on him, he went just 18 for 35 for 184 yards and a pick. He scrambled 12 times for a grand total of minus-7 yards. Tailback Clyde Edwards-Helaire wasn’t much better, carrying the ball six times for 14 yards. Justin Jefferson did catch the ball six times for 81 yards, but he was just about the only highlight.
The good news for LSU is that Arkansas doesn’t really do a whole lot on defense. They did shout out Tulsa at homecoming, but in SEC action they have only given up fewer than 34 points one time, in a 24-17 loss to Texas A&M down in Dallas. If LSU can take advantage of that porous defense and chew up the clock, then they won’t have to worry about Arkansas — who can score points, as we saw when they hung 31 on Alabama (in a 34-point loss). LSU has covered the spread in each of their last four games after failing to cover the week before.
Why should you put your money on the Razorbacks?
Arkansas can score points, as we’ve seen this season. Ty Storey is an intriguing talent at quarterback; against Vanderbilt, he went 23 for 36 for 240 yards and a pair of touchdowns. However, he also had a backbreaking pair of interceptions that gave the ball to the Commodores at the wrong points in the game. Tailback Rakeem Boyd found plenty of room to run, carrying the ball 19 times for 113 yards and a score, and Chas Hayden added 70 yards and a score of his own on just five attempts.
Arkansas has also played well against LSU historically, covering the spread in four of their last five meetings and 8 of the last 11. They have also covered the spread in their last four games after a straight-up loss. Given how they moved the ball against Alabama, it will be interesting to see what they can do against an LSU team that has to have some questions after their inability to do well on either side of the ball against the Crimson Tide.
Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction for LSU vs Arkansas
I see LSU coming in and blowing the doors off Arkansas. The Razorbacks will see one of the best defenses in the SEC, but this won’t turn into the type of garbage-time affair that saw Arkansas score so much on Alabama. I see LSU winning, 27-6.