Atlanta at Philadelphia NFC Divisional Round NFL Odds & Pick

Posted by Rogelio Aguas on January 11, 2018 in

The Atlanta Falcons have a long way to go if they want to return to the Super Bowl — as a wild card team they will need to win three playoff games on the road. However, they took care of the first step along the way, doubling up the Rams in Los Angeles, 26-13, last week. They now visit the Philadelphia Eagles, winners of the NFC East, who got the bye week to rest (and who also rested a number of their starters in Week 17 against Dallas). The two teams last met in 2016, with Philadelphia winning by a 24-15 margin. Can the Eagles overcome the loss of starting quarterback Carson Wentz, or will the Falcons make it two wins in a row and make it to the NFC Championship? Check out our NFC Divisional Round odds preview on this postseason matchup.

Atlanta at Philadelphia NFC Divisional Round NFL Odds & Pick

When: Saturday, January 13, 2018, 4:35pm ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Radio: Westwood One
Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
NFL Odds: Atlanta (-3), O/U 41

Weather Forecast

  • Clear: 2°C/35°F
  • Humidity: 48%
  • Precipitation: 2%
  • Cloud Cover: 15%
  • Wind: 15 mph NW
  • Stadium Type: Open

Why should you bet on the Falcons?

We often think of a high-flying offense when we think of the Atlanta Falcons, but the real heroes in last week’s win came on the defense. The Rams made it into the red zone four times but only scored one touchdown. The Falcons did permit 101 yards of rushing for Todd Gurley, but those yards didn’t end up doing too much damage to the Falcons’ cause. Jared Goff had a tough day against the Falcon defense, misfiring on 21 of his passing attempts. The Falcons’ combination of an aggressive front seven and a speedy secondary has led to opponents only scoring 19.3 points per game — eighth best in the league.

The Atlanta offense did enough to win, as Matt Ryan threw for 218 yards and a score and did not turn the ball over. In his last four postseason games, Ryan has 11 touchdown passes without a single pick. Wideout Julio Jones had a big day against the Rams, hauling in nine passes for 94 yards. Given the Eagles’ propensity to give up plays down the field, Matt Ryan should find Jones and Mohamed Sanu for some big gains. The Atlanta running game prospered in Los Angeles , as Devonta Freeman picked up 66 yards, part of the team’s 142 yards on the ground. However, Philadelphia is solid against the run, so Atlanta will have to move the ball through the air to loosen things up.

Why should you put your money on the Eagles?

It’s been four seasons since the Eagles were last in the postseason. Second-year quarterback Carson Wentz seemed poised to lead Philadelphia on a deep run until he blew out his ACL. That means Nick Foles — about to make his second playoff start — will lead the offense. He has picked up 537 yards in three games, with five touchdowns and two interceptions. While he moved the ball well against the New York Giants, he struggled to do so against Oakland and Dallas, which means that the Eagles will have to rely on their running game to get things done. Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount did combine for 1,639 rushing yards in the regular season, so they have some weapons. Tight end Zach Ertz has played through a couple of injuries but should be fresh in this playoff game. During the regular season, the Eagles averaged 28.6 points per game.

The defense ranked number one in the NFL in yards permitted. Brandon Graham leads an aggressive pass rush, with 9 ½ sacks on the season, but he has an ankle injury and is still on the questionable list for this game. The Eagles only permitted 18.4 points per game (fourth overall) in the regular season. The question, though, is whether Philadelphia’s offense can stay on the field long enough to give defense rest between Atlanta possessions.

Latest NFC Divisional Betting Trends

  • Atlanta is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
  • Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 5 games
  • Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Philadelphia is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 7 games

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

It’s a shame that Philadelphia had to lose their starting quarterback this way. However, injuries are part of life in the National Football League. I see Atlanta taking advantage of the situation and getting enough points to win another road game against a grinding defense. I predict a final score of Atlanta 23, Philadelphia 16.