Super Bowl LIII Odds, Preview & Pick

We had an historic day on in the Conference Round, as we saw two playoff games go to overtime on the same day for the first time. We also saw an AFC Championship played at Arrowhead Stadium for the first time. The Chiefs were bidding to head to the Super Bowl for the first time in 49 seasons, and they got magnificent play from quarterback Patrick Mahomes II, but a defense that just couldn’t get to Tom Brady (or out of its own way, as Dee Ford lining up in the neutral zone took away the interception that would have given Kansas City the win). In the NFC Championship, the New Orleans Saints jumped out to a 13-0 lead but ended up losing in overtime as well; a pass interference call that everyone but the officials on the field saw would have let New Orleans run out the clock for the win, but instead the Rams got the ball back in time to nail a tying field goal and then won with a 57-yard field goal in extra time. We’re just over a week away from Super Bowl LIII, featuring the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Rams. Right after New England escaped Kansas City with an overtime win in the AFC Championship, the Rams opened as a one-point favorite. However, a swift tide of money on New England pushed the line the other way, and now it has settled at New England -2, with about two-thirds of the money to this point favoring New England. The money line has the Patriots at -140 and the Rams at +120, and the point total sits at 57 ½ points, which is fairly high for a pro football game, but given the conditions (a domed stadium) and the offenses in play, this could turn into the sort of track meet we saw in the last period of the AFC Championship. When it comes to online betting on the final score, what can we expect? Take a look at our thoughts on the game and an overall NFL betting prediction.

Super Bowl LIII Odds, Preview & Pick

The @Patriots. The @RamsNFL. Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta is SET.

📺: #SBLIII on @nfloncbs (2/3 @ 6:30pm ET) pic.twitter.com/wBOldlKLW9 — Super Bowl (@SuperBowl) January 21, 2019

When: February 3rd, 2019. 6:30pm ET Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Atlanta, Georgia TV: CBS Radio: New England / Los Angeles Live Stream: NFL Live Super Bowl LIII Odds: Patriots -2.5 (-110) The opening point spread, for some reason, is Los Angeles -1, with a point total of 58 for over/under wagering. Given that the Rams were a missed pass interference call from missing out on the Super Bowl altogether, and given that the Patriots were able to outduel Patrick Mahomes II and the Kansas City offense, holding them scoreless for the entire first half, this point spread doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. There are a lot of things to like about the Rams. They use a unique approach on offense, bringing their wideouts tighter to the line, which means that they can also help on running plays with blocking, and their crossing patterns pop more, because the receivers don’t have to come as far back across the field. They also have a play-action game that freezes the linebackers. If the Patriots can jam those tight receivers, that could send the Rams’ offense timing off and also contain the running game up to the middle.

Why Bet on the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LIII?

The Patriots also have an underrated running game, particularly in the middle. With such options as Sony Michel and James White at tailback and Rex Burkhead and James Develin at fullback, the Pats have a power game that is at least the equal of what the Rams have in C.J. Anderson and Todd Gurley II — particularly since the Rams did not use Gurley for much of the NFC Championship, a decision that was debated during the game and will continue to come up in the Super Bowl analysis. According to comments from the Rams after the game, Gurley didn’t have any sort of physical limitation. Instead, the team simply felt that Anderson was playing better — but Anderson only ran for 28 yards. Given that Gurley ran for over 100 yards in each of his first two playoff games, it seems like there would be more behind this decision than what the Rams are saying right now.

Why Bet on the LA Rams in Super Bowl LIII?

What about that Rams defense? Yes, coordinator Wade Phillips was able to beat Tom Brady the last time he led a unit against him, four years ago in Denver in the AFC Championship. But that Denver team had edge rushers and cornerbacks who are more physical and faster than what the Rams have this year. Once again, the Patriots should not have much trouble moving the ball, particularly as the game goes on, which means that they should be able to win, so long as they can keep the Rams under 30. Or maybe even 35.

The Game Could Come Down to the Wire Again

Both the NFC and the AFC Championships went to overtime, and the Rams ended up winning by three, while the Patriots won by six. Despite the fact that the NFC Championship was played indoors, it had a grinding pace pretty much the whole way. New Orleans led 13-0 after one quarter, but it could easily have been a 21-0 lead, had the Rams’ defense not stiffened in the red zone on two possessions. The Rams made the necessary adjustments, but it was still anyone’s game in the waning moments. The AFC Championship did not feature much scoring until the fourth quarter, when both offenses exploded, trading leads time and time again until Patrick Mahomes II led a drive for a game-tying field goal in the game’s last 39 seconds of regulation. We could see a similar back-and-forth in this Super Bowl, as both teams have stout defensive lines — but both teams also have secondaries that will give up the occasional big play. Both teams have quality quarterbacks, but both teams also have flaws in their receiving corps, as the Patriots really don’t have a speed threat, and the Rams just don’t have enough speed to spread the field enough with the absence of Cooper Kupp.

Both Teams Will Pull Off Surprises

It was a year ago when the Eagles shocked the Patriots with “Philly Special,” which led to Nick Foles catching a touchdown pass. The Patriots tried something similar, but Tom Brady couldn’t hold onto the ball when it came his way. In the NFC Championship, the Rams pulled off a sweet fake punt deep in their own territory to continue a drive; had it failed and the Saints converted that short field into a touchdown, the game might well have been over at that point. The Patriots almost always come in with surprises of their own ready to go, and I look for Belichick to take advantage of Sean McVay’s aggressiveness at some point in the game.

The Defenses Will Fade Late

The bruising that Sony Michel and the tandem of Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson will deliver to the opposing front-seven units will lead to a fourth quarter that is more wide-open than the first three. This is why I see the Patriots winning, because it’s almost impossible to come up with a time that another quarterback outdueled Brady — except for Foles last year. It’s hard to imagine Brady losing two consecutive duels on the game’s biggest stage in that way.

Expert Super Bowl LIII Prediction

With all that said, I don’t have a reason as to why the Rams are favored. The Patriots showed, once again, that they can complete comeback drive after comeback drive. Brady can still fit passes into infinitesimal windows, and opposing defenses will make just enough mistakes to let the Patriots off the hook when New England hits adversity. So while the Rams do have a chance to bring Los Angeles its first league title since 1951, I don’t see them hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.