Week 10 Preview: New England at Denver NFL Spread & Expert Preview

Posted by Rogelio Aguas on November 10, 2017 in

Two of the most successful teams in the AFC in recent years tangle on Sunday night as the Denver Broncos (3-5) prepare to welcome the New England Patriots (6-2) for a prime-time tussle. However, the Broncos appear to be headed toward a quagmire, as their quarterback position has fallen apart. They went into the year starting Trevor Siemian, and all seemed good, as the Broncos got off to a strong start, including an absolute embarrassment of the Dallas Cowboys in Week Two. Then teams figured out that they just needed to load the box and dare Siemian to beat them down the field. After that, Siemian was exposed — and how he’s on the bunch, as the Broncos have brought back Brock Osweiler, of all people, to lead the offense while Paxton Lynch rehabs his shoulder. The Patriots have some defensive issues, but New England fans should have a lot of confidence about this matchup in the Mile High City. Take a look at our NFL spread preview for this Sunday night extravaganza.

Week 10 Preview: New England at Denver NFL Spread & Expert Preview

When: Sunday, November 12, 2017, 8:30pm ET
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver
Radio: 98.5 The Sports Hub (New England) / KOA NewsRadio 850 AM (Denver)
Live Stream: NFL Live
NFL Odds: New England -7.5, O/U 46

Why should you bet on the Patriots?

New England comes out of their bye week having put away the Los Angeles Chargers two weeks ago. While Philip Rivers was able to lead the Charges to 349 yards of total offense, the Patriots picked up 414 and won the time of possession battle by almost 14 minutes. Special teams also went the Patriots’ way, as the Chargers pulled off one of the most boneheaded punt returns you’ll ever see, turning some iffy field position into a safety. Chris Hogan should be healthy, and along with Brandin Cooks, Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski, Tom Brady should have plenty of targets open down the field — as long as the Patriots’ O-line gives Brady enough time to find them.

The Patriots’ defense is definitely a question mark. They give up passing yards in bunches, because their coverage schemes are not all that solid, and they don’t mount much of a pass rush. They depend on their offense to win games for them — which against Denver could be a risky proposition. It’s true that Brock Osweiler led the Broncos to a win over the Patriots at home during Denver’s Super Bowl run. However, I don’t see Osweiler having similar success this week.

Why should you put your money on the Broncos?

That vaunted Denver defense apparently didn’t make it onto the plane to Philadelphia last weekend, as the Eagles led the Broncos 17-3 after the first quarter and 31-9 at halftime. Denver permitted 419 yards of total offense in the 51-16 rout. It didn’t help that the offense turned the ball over twice, but the defense has to dig deeper and put forth the effort that led them to those early wins. It is exhausting on defense when the offense cannot hold onto the ball, and you keep having to come back on the field after another three-and-out.

Are the Broncos a safe bet in the NFL Week 10 odds?

This brings us to the offense. Osweiler was not particularly sharp in the start, going 21 for 42 for 226 yards and two picks to go along with a touchdown pass. Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas give Osweiler two stellar targets down the field, but Osweiler tends to hold onto the ball too long — and C.J. Anderson and the Denver running game are not producing like they need to be in order for the offense to have balance. If you like the Broncos, you see the defense putting up a motivated effort and Osweiler moving back into that solid game-manager role that earned him that huge contract in Houston.

Latest NFL Spread Trends for Week 10

  • Patriots are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 games
  • Patriots are 16-2 SU in the last 18 games
  • The total went OVER in 8 of New England’s last 12 games
  • Broncos are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 games
  • Broncos are 1-5 SU in the last 6 games
  • The total went UNDER in 4 of Denver’s last 6 games at home

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

Both of these teams have slipped a bit in form from the past several seasons, but the Broncos have slipped a lot further than the Patriots have. I see New England coming in and moving the ball at will, while the Broncos struggle to mount sustained drives. Denver will put forth more effort than they did against the Eagles, though, so I see a final score of New England 31, Denver 16.