Group D at UEFA’s EURO 2024 has two of the continent’s titans in the Netherlands and France. Poland and Austria will have their hands full indeed even to get one of the top third-place entries in the round of 16. The group stage runs from June 14-26, so each team will have three group-play chances to get points. With six groups, that means six group winners, six group runners-up and four third-place sides will advance. Let’s break down each of these four teams as you consider your EuroCup betting options for the tournament.
Betting UEFA EURO 2024 Group D Predictions: Poland, Netherlands, Austria, France | Soccer Odds
France
French soccer team comes in as the runner-up from the 2022 World Cup, where they fell to Argentina on penalties. They still use a back four on defense with a midfield three, thanks to the strong play that Antoine Griezmann showed at the World Cup. Ousmane Dembélé and Kylian Mbappé, the captain, use the wide areas to build attacks from one-on-one situations. Their dribbling ability and acceleration give them the advantage over most fullbacks.
However, the French have fullbacks who can advance on their own, such as Theo Hernandez on the left side. On the right side, the French have the option of using Jules Kounde if they want a more defensively minded game; if they want more offensive pressure, Jonathan Clauss will usually get the start on the right side. Adrien Rabiot is the most defensively minded midfielder.
So who will run the attack? Randal Kolo Muani, Marcus Thuram and Olivier Giroud have all gotten starts at center forwards since the World Cup. Giroud is elite when it comes to link-up play, but Muani is just as good differently, moving off the ball and running in behind the play to nab goals.
Thuram’s style is a kind of hybrid of the other two. When France doesn’t have the ball, the team reverts to a sort of 4-4-2 as the right wing drops to join the three midfielders, keeping Mbappé out of defensive spots and allowing him to remain deeper as a transition threat. That opportunity can also turn into a problem, as Mbappé’s lack of defensive accountability makes that side open for strong opponents to attack.
Netherlands
The Orange team can change formations within a single game, sometimes playing with a back three and at others in a back four. On offense, though, the 3-2-4-1 and the 4-2-3-1 don’t have many differences.
The No. 10s are generally between the lines, giving an advantage to the widest players in the schemes, whether that’s a wing back, a fullback on the overlap or a wide forward. With a back three, the Dutch try to get to the wingbacks directly or try to go down the middle and draw the opposition in before going out wide.
Virgil van Dijk, the captain, is essential to the team’s success. The absence of Frenkie de Jong in the midfield means that others will have to fill his shoes in the areas of ball carrying into the middle and attacking third, as well as his defensive positioning and elite tackling.
Expect Joey Veerman and Jerdy Schouten to have that midfield pairing when the Dutch see Poland in their group play opener. In qualification, the Dutch got five clean sheets, against Greece and Gibraltar twice and the Republic of Ireland once. When they played France, though, they gave up six goals over two matches. They allowed four to Croatia and three to Italy.
Austria
Marko Arnautovic, leads his side in caps (112) and goals (36). The team as a whole had been known for slow, tentative soccer up through their failure to make it to the 2022 World Cup. Ralf Rangnick has arrived as manager, and the team now plays a more energetic style out of a 4-2-2-2 formation in possession, posting narrow No. 10 players behind the two forwards.
Finding these four with direct ground passes so that they can blend is an essential part of their attack. Rangnick came from the Red Bull club network, where he was their tactical architect, and many of the national team’s players have experience in that same network or played for coaches that are aware of Rangnick’s style.
Austria generates quite a few transitions; their weakness is a pair of injuries, Alaba (who plays defender for Real Madrid) and Xaver Schlager is a ball-winner, but he blew an ACL while playing with RB Leipzig just over a month ago will hurt.
Poland
They got rid of Fernando Santos, who had guided Portugal to the EURO 2016 title, after the team lost to the Czech Republic, Albania and Moldova. Now it’s the former U-21 coach, Michal Probierz, running things.
They have a back-three formation that shifts to a 5-3-2 when they have to defend in the middle third or their own third. Jakub Kiwior and Jan Bednarek make a fearsome pair of tall center backs, while their best attack comes through wingbacks Przemyslaw FRankowski and Nicola Zalewski.
Crosses from them are the top threat for Poland in the attacking third; Zalewski can cross with either foot. Captain Robert Lewandowski will be out for the team’s group play opener, and his overall conditioning could be an issue after he had to come off just 30 minutes into Poland’s last warm up match against Turkey.
UEFA EURO 2024 Betting Predictions
France to win | Netherlands to advance
2024 EURO 2024 Odds to Win
- England +340
- France +390
- Germany +530
- Portugal +680
- Spain +730
- Italy +1400
- Netherlands +1550
- Belgium +1600
- Croatia +3800
- Denmark +4000
- Turkiye +5000
- Switzerland +6600
- Austria +7500
- Serbia +8000
- Hungary +8000
- Ukraine +9500
- Scotland +10000
- Poland +14000
- Czechia +15000
- Romania +19000
- Slovenia +26000
- Albania +46000
- Slovakia +48000
- Georgia +48000
89' in the opening game of EURO 2016… 🇫🇷😲#EURO2024 pic.twitter.com/hVhGcvxmYx
— UEFA EURO 2024 (@EURO2024) June 11, 2024
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